A companion to the essay

The Second Derivative

Second-derivative tracker

Enter any metric per line across periods. The tool computes net-new (the 1st derivative), the change in net-new (the 2nd derivative), growth %, and classifies each line's state — accelerating, borrowed time, topping, or declining. Two worked examples are loaded to start; overwrite them with your own numbers. Nothing leaves your browser.

Setup

Smoothing is applied before differentiating (noise multiplies with each derivative). The confirmation window is how many consecutive periods of one-way acceleration are needed before a state is called.

Data

Save data downloads a file you can reload later — nothing is stored automatically, so save before closing.

Portfolio state

Per-line detail